Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.370138 0.422707 0.479787 0.546331 0.621743 0.704518 0.802231
2025-08-24 0.291443 0.360539 0.441409 0.542909 0.666765 0.812863 0.998169
2025-08-31 0.232704 0.309772 0.406375 0.536044 0.705230 0.918165 1.206206
2025-09-07 0.196334 0.279843 0.391407 0.550760 0.771903 1.067271 1.491017
2025-09-14 0.157386 0.239441 0.355909 0.532362 0.791901 1.158445 1.714047
2025-09-21 0.130551 0.211188 0.332342 0.526290 0.827442 1.275348 1.989709
2025-09-28 0.108483 0.186022 0.308969 0.516296 0.855043 1.383885 2.268356
2025-10-05 0.096264 0.174246 0.304216 0.534160 0.927871 1.570422 2.692719
2025-10-12 0.083088 0.158438 0.290185 0.534238 0.971204 1.715111 3.069044
2025-10-19 0.073210 0.146669 0.281060 0.541041 1.026491 1.886292 3.512530
2025-10-26 0.065870 0.138291 0.276581 0.555271 1.096620 2.091663 4.042666
2025-11-02 0.055976 0.123112 0.256866 0.537531 1.104351 2.184878 4.379565
2025-11-09 0.046359 0.107026 0.233346 0.509765 1.090939 2.241266 4.664122
2025-11-16 0.039992 0.096713 0.219907 0.500474 1.113365 2.370446 5.110605
2025-11-23 0.034500 0.087310 0.206827 0.489820 1.131396 2.493473 5.562611
2025-11-30 0.031289 0.082646 0.203456 0.500136 1.196490 2.723152 6.270939
2025-12-07 0.026670 0.073600 0.188446 0.481164 1.192898 2.804983 6.670148
2025-12-14 0.023413 0.067375 0.179090 0.474082 1.215770 2.948348 7.226837
2025-12-21 0.020462 0.061355 0.169183 0.463933 1.229620 3.072791 7.756766
2025-12-28 0.019061 0.059350 0.169228 0.479214 1.308769 3.360868 8.713043
2026-01-04 0.017152 0.055482 0.163649 0.478685 1.347361 3.555912 9.468248
2026-01-11 0.015698 0.052681 0.160527 0.484364 1.403244 3.801333 10.382561
2026-01-18 0.014626 0.050847 0.159840 0.496827 1.479508 4.108792 11.497046